PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:3series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Power Rangerswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 32 games
Warlock
kasane · 31 game
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 23 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 10 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 10 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 8 games
Tusk
Immersion · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 7 games
Chenoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 915 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 406 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 655 bans
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 621 bans
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 890 bans
Ember Spirit
380 picks · 613 bans
Mars
367 picks · 510 bans
Warlock
360 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Power Rangers
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:21
1w Team 58%Power Rangers 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Lunanesfeer
MarsSSS
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
InvokerSquad1x
LargoAlberkaaa
Tinyswedenstrong
Shadow DemonImmersion
Skywrath MageRein
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction missed10:32
1w Team 58%Power Rangers 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Razornesfeer
Primal BeastSSS
ViperAlberkaaa
Tinyswedenstrong
ChenHduo
WarlockRein
TuskImmersion
Game 3prediction correct27:13
1w Team 58%Power Rangers 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Lunanesfeer
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Tinynicky`cool
Dark SeerSSS
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Tuskswedenstrong
ChenHduo
DazzleRein
Shadow DemonImmersion
Game 4prediction missed11:41
1w Team 60%Power Rangers 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMunkushi~
Clinkznesfeer
TidehunterSSS
Pucknicky`cool
Storm SpiritSquad1x
SlardarAlberkaaa
JakiroRein
PhoenixImmersion
Tuskswedenstrong
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4