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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 14 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
64%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 23 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 19 games
68%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
585 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 421 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 376 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
366 picks · 217 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 507 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
338 picks · 707 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 839 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
313 picks · 636 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:41
1w Team 67%Runa Team 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
51% · 152 games47% · 120 games
Abaddonnesfeer
Abaddon
Puck
PuckSquad1x
53% · 171 game51% · 241 game
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Magnus
MagnusSSS
58% · 166 games45% · 160 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
45% · 92 games51% · 18 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Elder Titan
Elder Titankasane
50% · 101 game52% · 143 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed26:30
1w Team 67%Runa Team 33%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
54% · 89 games50% · 133 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
55% · 87 games49% · 177 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
47% · 334 games52% · 170 games
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Dawnbreaker
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
48% · 151 game47% · 233 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Jakiro
Jakirokasane
46% · 197 games54% · 145 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 80%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2