FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 26 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Jakiro
kasane · 14 games
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 36 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 35 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
469 picks · 242 bans
Disruptor
461 picks · 447 bans
Puck
355 picks · 951 bans
Pugna
322 picks · 367 bans
Warlock
303 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
289 picks · 467 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
Batrider
287 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total52% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:12
1w Team 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonMunkushi~
Anti-Magenesfeer
LeshracSquad1x
Sand Kingnicky`cool
DawnbreakerSSS
MarsAlberkaaa
Tinyswedenstrong
Snapfirequeezy
Disruptorkasane
JakiroHduo
Game 2prediction missed34:13
1w Team 47%Runa Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMunkushi~
Gyrocopternesfeer
TimbersawSSS
MarsAlberkaaa
Queen of PainSquad1x
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Warlockkasane
Snapfirequeezy
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 52%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2