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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 37 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
48%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 23 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 26 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 16 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 14 games
21%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 13 games
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 211 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 610 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 739 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
385 picks · 155 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 537 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 311 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 716 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 544 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:25
1w Team 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
56% · 91 game45% · 338 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
53% · 216 games46% · 112 games
Earth Spiritряф^^
Earth Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
57% · 81 game53% · 129 games
ChenSOhY
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
47% · 127 games44% · 86 games
Banesunset
Bane
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
52% · 150 games
Game 2prediction correct25:19
1w Team 64%SIBE Team 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
43% · 175 games56% · 73 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackCloud
59% · 25 games46% · 141 game
Templar Assassinряф^^
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
52% · 139 games48% · 213 games
Batridersunset
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
55% · 150 games51% · 176 games
GyrocopterSOhY
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
46% · 114 games
Game 3prediction correct27:7
1w Team 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
53% · 209 games45% · 181 game
Svenselfhate
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
50% · 210 games45% · 269 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaCloud
65% · 87 games44% · 144 games
Hoodwinksunset
Hoodwink
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
52% · 49 games47% · 166 games
GrimstrokeSOhY
Grimstroke
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
53% · 205 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3