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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 30 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 21 game
52%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 16 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Pure~ · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 13 games
69%

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 30 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 21 game
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Razor
Razor
ATF · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 20 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 356 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
357 picks · 417 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
345 picks · 634 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 472 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 173 bans
49%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
308 picks · 591 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
308 picks · 343 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
305 picks · 220 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:43
1w Team 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:08:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
44% · 113 games48% · 69 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Lifestealer
LifestealerPure~
54% · 116 games51% · 206 games
SnapfireMalr1ne
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
55% · 98 games51% · 173 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
42% · 226 games48% · 71 game
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
55% · 328 games51% · 362 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct21:31
1w Team 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenbzm
little data53% · 198 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Kez
KezPure~
54% · 113 games65% · 41 game
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Night Stalker
Night Stalker33
49% · 45 games49% · 123 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
46% · 277 games48% · 205 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
45% · 406 games49% · 274 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed46:13
1w Team 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Io
IoPure~
54% · 50 games48% · 81 game
NecrophosATF
Necrophos
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
50% · 215 games42% · 381 game
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Largo
Largo33
56% · 217 games50% · 430 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
51% · 631 game47% · 191 game
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
49% · 260 games53% · 290 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3