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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
36%

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 9 games
78%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 318 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
325 picks · 313 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 476 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 382 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 336 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
255 picks · 142 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
255 picks · 171 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
249 picks · 462 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
1w Team 46%Team Secret 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret.
Game 2prediction missed
1w Team 46%Team Secret 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Secret — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2