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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
74%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 20 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 17 games
59%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Antares · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Antares · 6 games
83%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
83%
Underlord
Underlord
Noticed · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 5 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Noticed · 5 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
388 picks · 500 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
380 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 556 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 391 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 728 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
316 picks · 156 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
297 picks · 412 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
1w Team 59%Virtus.pro 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMunkushi~
50% · 325 games55% · 23 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Huskar
HuskarChira JUNIOR
50% · 34 games52% · 105 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCloud
48% · 282 games42% · 351 game
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockFishman
52% · 17 games60% · 110 games
ChenRein
Chen
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
52% · 110 games46% · 179 games
Lionjesv
Lion
Game 2prediction correct37:32
1w Team 59%Virtus.pro 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:09:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreMunkushi~
57% · 43 games42% · 106 games
LinaSquad1x
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterCloud
53% · 88 games42% · 205 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
51% · 379 games53% · 184 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFishman
57% · 128 games45% · 172 games
Dark Willowjesv
Dark Willow
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
54% · 271 game47% · 242 games
ClockwerkRein
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed5:33
1w Team 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
41% · 153 games45% · 314 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
45% · 462 games62% · 133 games
BristlebackNoticed
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusCloud
53% · 170 games55% · 240 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
55% · 260 games45% · 268 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFishman
53% · 120 games48% · 210 games
Dark Willowjesv
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3