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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SSS · 14 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 12 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 20 games
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 19 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 14 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
506 picks · 543 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 370 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 509 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 703 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
304 picks · 556 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
303 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 434 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:37
1w Team 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
45% · 39 games49% · 280 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
49% · 234 games46% · 161 game
Queen of PainDaxak
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
51% · 351 game64% · 239 games
Monkey KingSerenada
Monkey King
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
43% · 339 games57% · 227 games
MagnusOneJey
Magnus
Dazzle
Dazzlekasane
45% · 62 games48% · 118 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed9:23
1w Team 62%Virtus.pro 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
54% · 205 games46% · 243 games
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Undying
UndyingSSS
58% · 109 games41% · 227 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSquad1x
52% · 44 games51% · 199 games
Ember SpiritSerenada
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
46% · 273 games52% · 125 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerkkasane
53% · 367 games50% · 204 games
MagnusOneJey
Magnus
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2