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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 40 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 23 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
65%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%

Yellow Submarine

Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 27 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 21 game
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 20 games
35%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 658 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 374 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 574 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 715 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
371 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 946 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
1w Team 62%Yellow Submarine 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
53% · 121 game49% · 166 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
58% · 12 games50% · 40 games
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Axe
AxeCloud
49% · 37 games49% · 99 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
61% · 123 games40% · 136 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
47% · 148 games
Game 2prediction correct24:2
1w Team 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMunkushi~
58% · 25 games50% · 66 games
Troll WarlordSatanic
Troll Warlord
Abaddon
AbaddonCloud
49% · 22 games59% · 107 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
49% · 98 games48% · 179 games
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
45% · 158 games53% · 41 game
Venomancerasdekor_r
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark Willowswedenstrong
47% · 90 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2