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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 35 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 33 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 28 games
50%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 23 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 603 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 563 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 161 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:41
1w Team 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:03:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
51% · 141 game55% · 168 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherCloud
48% · 62 games51% · 55 games
Chaos KnightSatanic
Chaos Knight
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
53% · 110 games47% · 229 games
Phoenixkasane
Phoenix
Snapfire
Snapfireswedenstrong
46% · 165 games52% · 135 games
Clockwerkrue
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
41% · 227 games55% · 118 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed21:37
1w Team 59%Yellow Submarine 41%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
54% · 159 games49% · 101 game
Chaos KnightSatanic
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
52% · 208 games49% · 77 games
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
52% · 310 games50% · 208 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
49% · 153 games49% · 424 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
48% · 216 games47% · 236 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2