Friday Fight · BO3
result vs prediction
1WIN Staffloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Staffwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1WIN Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Staff
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 689 bans
Phoenix
496 picks · 797 bans
Clockwerk
479 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
448 picks · 544 bans
Muerta
430 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
421 picks · 1005 bans
Bristleback
395 picks · 914 bans
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 761 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% 1WIN Staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% 1WIN Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
1WIN Staff 61%Aurora Staff 39%
The model gave 61% on 1WIN Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Game 2prediction missed
1WIN Staff 61%Aurora Staff 39%
The model gave 61% on 1WIN Staff — the game was taken by Aurora Staff.
Model check result
Model favorite1WIN Staff · 61%
Series resultAurora Staff 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2