Чемпионат России Сбера 2025 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 0:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
20Twice
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
4Pirates
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 26 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 546 bans
Shadow Shaman
458 picks · 502 bans
Ringmaster
427 picks · 221 bans
Jakiro
382 picks · 274 bans
Tusk
382 picks · 369 bans
Terrorblade
366 picks · 807 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 532 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 74%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:57
20Twice 23%4Pirates 77%
The model gave 77% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterDominic
ClinkzOtaker
33% · 11 games
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
38% · 17 games
Kunkkaмистер мораль
47% · 28 games
Nature's Prophetariel
62% · 38 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct32:35
20Twice 23%4Pirates 77%
The model gave 77% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawDominic
Nature's ProphetOtaker
55% · 43 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
44% · 53 games
Pangolierмистер мораль
58% · 27 games
Pugnaariel
36% · 7 games
AxePERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 91%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2