FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 0:1series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Teawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
20Twice
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Team Tea
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 658 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 251 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 611 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
244 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
20Twice 7%Team Tea 93%
The model gave 93% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 93%
Series resultTeam Tea 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1