Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionAArcanewin 1:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
孤孤独摇滚loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arcane
Oracleoften banned
Victoria · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Storm · 1 game
Magnus
Killa · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
Killa · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 1 game
孤独摇滚
Dawnbreakeroften banned
strawberry · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
strawberry · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dstones · 4 games
Doomoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
strawberry · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
778 picks · 600 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
416 picks · 980 bans
Nature's Prophet
405 picks · 685 bans
Undying
399 picks · 596 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 918 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% 孤独摇滚
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% 孤独摇滚
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Arcane 40%孤独摇滚 60%
The model gave 60% on 孤独摇滚 — the game was taken by Arcane.
Model check result
Model favorite孤独摇滚 · 60%
Series resultArcane 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1