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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
果果loss 1:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

果果

No games played over 6 months.

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
43%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xwy · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 929 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 587 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
361 picks · 185 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 396 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 459 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
320 picks · 196 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 584 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
果果 18%Aster.Aries 82%
The model gave 82% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 30:52.
Game 2prediction correct50:33
果果 18%Aster.Aries 82%
The model gave 82% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 43:53.
Game 3prediction correct38:24
果果 18%Aster.Aries 82%
The model gave 82% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 44:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 82%
Series resultAster.Aries 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3