Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Marsoften banned
Red · 7 games
Grimstroke
Bombi · 6 games
Dark Willow
Bombi · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
xsilearn · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ghost · 3 games
Abaddon
Ohaiyo · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
InterActive Philippines
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 6 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 6 games
Lion
Matt · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 4 games
Grimstroke
Matt · 4 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Luciano · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
433 picks · 318 bans
Mars
404 picks · 591 bans
Queen of Pain
339 picks · 405 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 760 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 179 bans
Kunkka
262 picks · 446 bans
Spirit Breaker
256 picks · 371 bans
Disruptor
242 picks · 167 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:12
496 Gaming 50%InterActive Philippines 50%
The model gave 50% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaGhost
Phantom AssassinMarb
Puckxsilearn
Ember SpiritNishababy
BloodseekerRed
TidehunterLuciano
Dark WillowBombi
WeaverKim0
BaneOhaiyo
GrimstrokeMatt
Game 2prediction correct40:17
496 Gaming 51%InterActive Philippines 49%
The model gave 51% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracxsilearn
KunkkaMarb
LifestealerGhost
InvokerNishababy
Spirit BreakerRed
Monkey KingLuciano
GrimstrokeBombi
WeaverKim0
AbaddonOhaiyo
BaneMatt
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 50%
Series result496 Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2