Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
Snapfire
Bombi · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
Team SMG
Brewmaster
AhFu · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
425 picks · 967 bans
Void Spirit
398 picks · 557 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 708 bans
Mars
341 picks · 575 bans
Grimstroke
311 picks · 297 bans
Earth Spirit
295 picks · 291 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 209 bans
Lion
264 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 56%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect