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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4 amigosloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GRIN esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4 amigos

Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 2 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
monkeys-forever · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chenoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
100%

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 746 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 694 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
430 picks · 345 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 548 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 896 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
397 picks · 176 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 193 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% 4 amigos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:26
4 amigos 42%GRIN esports 58%
The model gave 58% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDouble King
55% · 93 games46% · 210 games
MarsMoo
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRCY
55% · 121 game51% · 251 game
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Batrider
Batridermonkeys-forever
47% · 143 games
Mirana
Miranaalbinozebra
49% · 104 games
Game 2prediction correct18:36
4 amigos 42%GRIN esports 58%
The model gave 58% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRCY
62% · 37 games62% · 32 games
OmniknightMoo
Omniknight
Lifestealer
LifestealerDouble King
44% · 24 games50% · 192 games
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Batrider
Batridermonkeys-forever
39% · 79 games
Mirana
Miranaalbinozebra
44% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 62%
Series resultGRIN esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2