Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction4B4 Boomeria ja Nulikkaloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Plasmawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Boomeria ja Nulikka
No games played over 6 months.
Plasma
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 454 bans
Tiny
530 picks · 386 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
Nature's Prophet
409 picks · 593 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 261 bans
Death Prophet
374 picks · 626 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 749 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 4 Boomeria ja Nulikka
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Plasma
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:33
4 Boomeria ja Nulikka 49%Plasma 51%
The model gave 51% on Plasma — the game was taken by Plasma in 51:40.
Game 2prediction correct9:27
4 Boomeria ja Nulikka 49%Plasma 51%
The model gave 51% on Plasma — the game was taken by Plasma in 28:17.
Model check result
Model favoritePlasma · 51%
Series resultPlasma 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2