Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A-Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
A-Team
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Rises · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Viperoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
120 picks · 266 bans
Mars
116 picks · 228 bans
Earth Spirit
106 picks · 85 bans
Void Spirit
98 picks · 154 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 98 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Keeper of the Light
73 picks · 139 bans
Nyx Assassin
72 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% A-Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:22
4 Zoomers 39%A-Team 61%
The model gave 61% on A-Team — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 40:21.
Game 2prediction missed29:6
4 Zoomers 39%A-Team 61%
The model gave 61% on A-Team — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 17:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteA-Team · 61%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2