Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomersloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Keyd Starswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
Snapfireoften banned
FCR · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
Svenoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
292 picks · 143 bans
Pangolier
205 picks · 414 bans
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 262 bans
Beastmaster
184 picks · 384 bans
Dark Seer
181 picks · 340 bans
Vengeful Spirit
178 picks · 255 bans
Skywrath Mage
177 picks · 107 bans
Sven
171 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
4 Zoomers 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 39:28.
Game 2prediction missed7:47
4 Zoomers 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 25:19.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 57%
Series resultKeyd Stars 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2