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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4 Zoomers

No games played over 6 months.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 18 games
44%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
62%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 11 games
64%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 153 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 287 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
211 picks · 413 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
196 picks · 388 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
192 picks · 109 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
188 picks · 273 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
185 picks · 353 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
173 picks · 244 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:39
4 Zoomers 40%KZ TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 30:43.
Game 2prediction missed57:37
4 Zoomers 40%KZ TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 52:46.
Game 3prediction missed40:30
4 Zoomers 40%KZ TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 35:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 60%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3