Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomerswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
349 picks · 517 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 179 bans
Bane
304 picks · 246 bans
Weaver
297 picks · 654 bans
Monkey King
259 picks · 738 bans
Tidehunter
253 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
225 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 20%
Hero pool strength50% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total83% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:12
4 Zoomers 83%simply TOOBASED 17%
The model gave 83% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 39:08.
Game 2prediction correct26:16
4 Zoomers 83%simply TOOBASED 17%
The model gave 83% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 30:32.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 83%
Series result4 Zoomers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2