Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
4 Zoomersloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Undyingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 586 bans
Void Spirit
262 picks · 331 bans
Mars
231 picks · 409 bans
Earth Spirit
217 picks · 171 bans
Keeper of the Light
188 picks · 350 bans
Nyx Assassin
184 picks · 578 bans
Wraith King
183 picks · 242 bans
Rubick
180 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% 4 Zoomers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:27
4 Zoomers 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 52:57.
Game 2prediction correct26:37
4 Zoomers 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 39:24.
Game 3prediction correct12:35
4 Zoomers 35%Team Undying 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 34:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 65%
Series resultTeam Undying 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3