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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
4ikibamboniwin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 8 games
25%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
waveformn · 7 games
71%
Viper
Vipersignature
Ethereal · 7 games
86%
Bane
Bane
ani-san · 6 games
17%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 6 games
67%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 29 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 27 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Nefrit · 25 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
636 picks · 440 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
589 picks · 332 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
471 picks · 554 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 373 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 522 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 404 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 1026 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:14
4ikibamboni 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linayowaai
42% · 23 games47% · 185 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierEthereal
47% · 337 games47% · 99 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixAnkou
55% · 251 game46% · 143 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Marci
Marciwaveformn
56% · 150 games49% · 472 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Bane
Baneani-san
58% · 228 games46% · 90 games
Lichasdekor_r
Lich
Game 2prediction missed28:18
4ikibamboni 38%Zero Tenacity 62%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyyowaai
49% · 436 games57% · 192 games
Nature's ProphetWorick
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperEthereal
50% · 163 games47% · 129 games
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
Faceless Void
Enigma
EnigmaAnkou
46% · 100 games49% · 403 games
SnapfireMikSa`
Snapfire
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerwaveformn
51% · 236 games47% · 348 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
51% · 623 games53% · 486 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series result4ikibamboni 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2