Кубок России Сбера 2025 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
7О7 ошибокloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 35 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 21 game
Batridersignature
ariel · 19 games
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
7 ошибок
Disruptor
smN · 2 games
Marcioften banned
azimoff · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Dinozavrik · 1 game
Axeoften banned
azimoff · 1 game
Bane
smN · 1 game
Svenoften banned
Dinozavrik · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
523 picks · 554 bans
Dark Willow
387 picks · 230 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 416 bans
Puck
338 picks · 868 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 483 bans
Tiny
323 picks · 303 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 900 bans
Nature's Prophet
291 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:13
4Pirates 71%7 ошибок 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciOtaker
UrsaDinozavrik
Enigmaмистер мораль
Bristlebackazimoff
EarthshakerNattyNarwhal
JakirosmN
Pugnaariel
TinyPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction correct49:7
4Pirates 69%7 ошибок 31%
The model gave 69% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 21:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciOtaker
UrsaDinozavrik
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Void Spiritazimoff
Slardarмистер мораль
BanesmN
Tinyariel
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 84%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2