DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
eSpoiledwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 36 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 32 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 28 games
Tusk
Wein · 26 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 23 games
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
710 picks · 345 bans
Disruptor
592 picks · 628 bans
Hoodwink
495 picks · 255 bans
Puck
411 picks · 1160 bans
Mars
404 picks · 683 bans
Tusk
402 picks · 255 bans
Dragon Knight
390 picks · 400 bans
Pugna
348 picks · 396 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total60% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:49
4Pirates 43%eSpoiled 57%
The model gave 57% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordrincyq
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ursassnovv1
Marciмистер мораль
SlardarCorrupted
Hoodwinkariel
TuskWein
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Disruptorasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 60%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1