The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFUNBROSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 14 games
FUNBROS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
470 picks · 443 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 497 bans
Ringmaster
433 picks · 201 bans
Terrorblade
332 picks · 582 bans
Storm Spirit
290 picks · 401 bans
Ancient Apparition
287 picks · 606 bans
Tusk
276 picks · 185 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 74 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
4Pirates 90%FUNBROS 10%
The model gave 90% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 21:04.
Game 2prediction correct31:19
4Pirates 90%FUNBROS 10%
The model gave 90% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 20:56.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 90%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2