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European Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 12 games
50%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ethereal · 8 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
510 picks · 733 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 801 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
482 picks · 484 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 540 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 380 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
429 picks · 1033 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 937 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 764 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total52% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:37
4Pirates 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Hydra in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinOtaker
51% · 122 games56% · 136 games
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
53% · 109 games47% · 187 games
BristlebackActor
Bristleback
Dazzle
Dazzleмистер мораль
68% · 8 games57% · 175 games
Magnusmellojul
Magnus
Tusk
Tuskariel
38% · 143 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
41% · 116 games
Game 2prediction correct34:21
4Pirates 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
52% · 45 games36% · 95 games
Phantom Assassinselfhate
Phantom Assassin
Broodmother
BroodmotherOtaker
45% · 20 games57% · 180 games
Magnusmellojul
Magnus
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
55% · 64 games50% · 77 games
SlardarActor
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
46% · 40 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
56% · 183 games
Game 3prediction missed30:44
4Pirates 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Hydra in 53:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackOtaker
51% · 71 game49% · 47 games
Faceless Voidselfhate
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
50% · 89 games55% · 159 games
Dark SeerActor
Dark Seer
Dazzle
Dazzleмистер мораль
51% · 10 games53% · 208 games
Magnusmellojul
Magnus
Clockwerk
Clockwerkariel
47% · 186 games
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
39% · 58 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 52%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3