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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Kalmychatawin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 23 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
41%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
67%

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 15 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 668 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
260 picks · 107 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 623 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 524 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 536 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 203 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total53% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 47%Kalmychata 53%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 53%
Series resultKalmychata 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1