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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 28 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 21 game
71%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
56%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
43%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
14%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
520 picks · 550 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 428 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 378 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 711 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 562 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 196 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 436 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total78% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 78%Level UP 22%
The model gave 78% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
4Pirates 78%Level UP 22%
The model gave 78% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 78%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2