DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
Tiny
Niku · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
Pucksignature
Niku · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Underlord
pma · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
551 picks · 280 bans
Disruptor
495 picks · 505 bans
Puck
371 picks · 1027 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
Hoodwink
323 picks · 158 bans
Mars
323 picks · 540 bans
Warlock
323 picks · 150 bans
Earthshaker
310 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
4Pirates 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladezvёzd
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Abaddonrubikon155
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knightgbc
JakiroPERDAN4IK
GrimstrokeGothic-
Shadow Demonariel
DisruptorHyugadoto
Game 2prediction correct32:35
4Pirates 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusazvёzd
Ursarubikon155
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Puckgbc
Marsмистер мораль
Slardarkrol9ash
Jakiroariel
HoodwinkGothic-
TinyPERDAN4IK
DisruptorHyugadoto
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 68%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2