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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Odiumloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 31 game
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 25 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
73%

Odium

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
lupsione · 2 games
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Actor · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lil · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil · 1 game
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lil · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer
selfhate · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
380 picks · 405 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
352 picks · 210 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
331 picks · 714 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 626 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 817 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
4Pirates 74%Odium 26%
The model gave 74% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordOtaker
53% · 86 games43% · 102 games
Svenselfhate
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
55% · 131 game47% · 308 games
TinyRain
Tiny
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
48% · 408 games46% · 101 game
AxeActor
Axe
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
51% · 55 games49% · 134 games
Marcilupsione
Marci
Bane
Baneariel
61% · 101 game46% · 136 games
WarlockLil
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed46:46
4Pirates 73%Odium 27%
The model gave 73% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Odium in 57:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
49% · 206 games51% · 277 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracNattyNarwhal
52% · 111 games49% · 230 games
DawnbreakerActor
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
47% · 404 games55% · 291 game
Ember SpiritRain
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
48% · 363 games53% · 13 games
Witch DoctorLil
Witch Doctor
Marci
MarciPERDAN4IK
43% · 190 games54% · 463 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct33:20
4Pirates 73%Odium 27%
The model gave 73% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOtaker
52% · 158 games52% · 190 games
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
55% · 239 games43% · 133 games
Queen of PainRain
Queen of Pain
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
45% · 103 games53% · 148 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciPERDAN4IK
49% · 169 games44% · 256 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Pugna
Pugnaariel
52% · 155 games55% · 97 games
BaneLil
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 88%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3