European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Muerta
not me · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
454 picks · 677 bans
Jakiro
428 picks · 416 bans
Phantom Assassin
353 picks · 727 bans
Bristleback
333 picks · 636 bans
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
Beastmaster
306 picks · 604 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:28
4Pirates 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by One Move in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyOtaker
SvenEyesight
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
Terrorbladezvёzd
Dark Seerмистер мораль
Monkey KingDifference
Windrangerariel
Keeper of the LightGilgir
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
ClockwerkBb3px
Game 2prediction missed32:25
4Pirates 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by One Move in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomOtaker
Medusazvёzd
Dark Seerмистер мораль
GyrocopterEyesight
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
Monkey KingDifference
Tinyariel
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
BanePERDAN4IK
TuskGilgir
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 59%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2