DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPPerrito Panzonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Batridersignature
ariel · 36 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 36 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 32 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Perrito Panzon
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 5 games
Chenoften banned
MoOz · 4 games
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 4 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
706 picks · 344 bans
Disruptor
591 picks · 621 bans
Hoodwink
489 picks · 254 bans
Puck
407 picks · 1152 bans
Mars
400 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
398 picks · 255 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 392 bans
Pugna
345 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:28
4Pirates 47%Perrito Panzon 53%
The model gave 53% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightzvёzd
AbaddonCostabile
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
LeshracPiPi
Doomмистер мораль
MarsILICH-
Hoodwinkariel
SnapfireElmisho
OmniknightPERDAN4IK
DisruptorMoOz
Game 2prediction missed35:15
4Pirates 46%Perrito Panzon 54%
The model gave 54% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladezvёzd
WeaverCostabile
SniperNattyNarwhal
Monkey KingPiPi
Pangolierмистер мораль
HuskarILICH-
Hoodwinkariel
DisruptorElmisho
OmniknightPERDAN4IK
BaneMoOz
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 51%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2