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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 28 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
68%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 22 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 18 games
72%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 11 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
615 picks · 304 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
533 picks · 540 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1106 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
371 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 601 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 158 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 262 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
4Pirates 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 22:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursazvёzd
55% · 180 games50% · 285 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
56% · 300 games43% · 79 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
47% · 447 games42% · 157 games
Axexn丶e
Axe
Batrider
Batriderariel
54% · 326 games48% · 329 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Snapfire
SnapfirePERDAN4IK
51% · 152 games53% · 555 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed48:30
4Pirates 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinzvёzd
54% · 187 games51% · 381 game
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
52% · 278 games57% · 3 games
KezNande
Kez
Doom
Doomмистер мораль
50% · 156 games46% · 209 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batriderariel
47% · 226 games52% · 48 games
HuskarEkki
Huskar
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
57% · 74 games45% · 280 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct26:37
4Pirates 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusazvёzd
50% · 226 games47% · 330 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
43% · 248 games48% · 266 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Enigma
Enigmaмистер мораль
59% · 137 games49% · 180 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
Tinyariel
46% · 503 games52% · 401 game
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressPERDAN4IK
45% · 193 games61% · 130 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 54%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3