?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
56%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
35%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 28 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 21 game
62%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 15 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 13 games
69%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shigetsu · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
532 picks · 611 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
474 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 431 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
375 picks · 791 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 522 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
348 picks · 795 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 300 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
325 picks · 371 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Runa Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:45
4Pirates 59%Runa Team 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 49:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
51% · 198 games54% · 128 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
55% · 85 games51% · 156 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetariel
49% · 133 games42% · 71 game
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Underlord
Omniknight
OmniknightOtaker
50% · 30 games45% · 42 games
UndyingHduo
Undying
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
56% · 89 games44% · 138 games
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct25:4
4Pirates 59%Runa Team 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 24:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerOtaker
55% · 39 games55% · 114 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
44% · 257 games51% · 401 game
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
46% · 132 games39% · 32 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Batrider
Batriderariel
47% · 245 games56% · 126 games
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Shadow Shaman
Undying
UndyingPERDAN4IK
51% · 53 games53% · 53 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed26:35
4Pirates 62%Runa Team 38%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
53% · 113 games48% · 210 games
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
Tidehunterмистер мораль
55% · 174 games48% · 383 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
49% · 340 games45% · 44 games
UndyingAlberkaaa
Undying
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
49% · 188 games42% · 160 games
Windrangerqueezy
Windranger
Bane
BanePERDAN4IK
63% · 70 games50% · 88 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 68%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3