4Pirates vs Team Spirit Academy — prediction CIS Battle 3 · Dota 2

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CIS Battle 3 · BO3

result vs prediction

4Pirateswin 2:1

series probability

82%18%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman

ariel · 32 games

59%

Batrideroften banned

ariel · 30 games

57%

Pangolieroften banned

мистер мораль · 30 games

50%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Otaker · 27 games

56%

Tusk

PERDAN4IK · 25 games

40%

Naga Sirensignature

PERDAN4IK · 22 games

64%

Snipersignature

NattyNarwhal · 22 games

64%

Beastmastersignature

Otaker · 21 game

67%

Team Spirit Academy

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Snapfire

682 picks · 329 bans

53%

Disruptor

556 picks · 588 bans

53%

Hoodwink

450 picks · 232 bans

51%

Puck

384 picks · 1108 bans

51%

Mars

380 picks · 652 bans

52%

Tusk

369 picks · 250 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

339 picks · 346 bans

52%

Warlock

336 picks · 150 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total82% 4Pirates

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed9:27

4Pirates 68%Team Spirit Academy 32%

The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 34:04.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo