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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 29 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 27 games
48%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 20 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 17 games
76%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
35%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 22 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 536 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 446 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 362 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 512 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
336 picks · 715 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
333 picks · 189 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
304 picks · 576 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 449 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head7 – 2
Model total68% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 68%Zero Tenacity 32%
The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction missed
4Pirates 68%Zero Tenacity 32%
The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction missed
4Pirates 68%Zero Tenacity 32%
The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 68%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3