CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 22 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 31 game
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 594 bans
Hoodwink
456 picks · 235 bans
Mars
385 picks · 655 bans
Puck
383 picks · 1113 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 251 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 349 bans
Warlock
334 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head9 – 4
Model total68% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:16
4Pirates 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterzvёzd
Nature's ProphetKami
Tidehunterмистер мораль
DawnbreakerNefrit
Primal BeastNattyNarwhal
Sand KingWorick
Hoodwinkariel
Skywrath MagedEsire
TuskPERDAN4IK
Naga SirenSe
Game 2prediction correct8:26
4Pirates 42%Zero Tenacity 58%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawмистер мораль
Anti-MageKami
Abaddonzvёzd
BeastmasterNefrit
HuskarNattyNarwhal
Ember SpiritWorick
WarlockPERDAN4IK
Skywrath MagedEsire
Lionariel
BatriderSe
Game 3prediction missed28:25
4Pirates 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursazvёzd
WeaverKami
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Queen of PainWorick
Tidehunterмистер мораль
SlardarNefrit
Baneariel
BatriderSe
DazzlePERDAN4IK
HoodwinkdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 68%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3