DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction55BUGPIGPOLEwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDUB Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5BUGPIGPOLE
No games played over 6 months.
CDUB Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
512 picks · 708 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
422 picks · 310 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Phantom Assassin
377 picks · 631 bans
Bristleback
376 picks · 864 bans
Magnus
375 picks · 991 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 5BUGPIGPOLE
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 5BUGPIGPOLE
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
5BUGPIGPOLE 55%CDUB Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on 5BUGPIGPOLE — the game was taken by CDUB Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
5BUGPIGPOLE 55%CDUB Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on 5BUGPIGPOLE — the game was taken by 5BUGPIGPOLE.
Game 3prediction correct
5BUGPIGPOLE 55%CDUB Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on 5BUGPIGPOLE — the game was taken by 5BUGPIGPOLE.
Model check result
Model favorite5BUGPIGPOLE · 55%
Series result5BUGPIGPOLE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3