Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Ice eSportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Black Ice eSports
Jakirosignature
Sonic · 6 games
Dawnbreaker
Shoe · 2 games
Disruptor
Sonic · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
468 picks · 646 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 504 bans
Bane
441 picks · 270 bans
Sand King
421 picks · 554 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 601 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
352 picks · 816 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Black Ice eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:38
5ManMidas 37%Black Ice eSports 63%
The model gave 63% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 34:34.
Game 2prediction correct45:29
5ManMidas 37%Black Ice eSports 63%
The model gave 63% on Black Ice eSports — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 42:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Ice eSports · 63%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2