Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Its Okayloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Its Okay
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
57 picks · 110 bans
Puck
46 picks · 125 bans
Earth Spirit
44 picks · 35 bans
Void Spirit
40 picks · 67 bans
Monkey King
36 picks · 69 bans
Phoenix
35 picks · 43 bans
Mirana
31 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
30 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 5ManMidas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:31
5ManMidas 55%Its Okay 45%
The model gave 55% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Its Okay in 24:49.
Game 2prediction missed33:58
5ManMidas 55%Its Okay 45%
The model gave 55% on 5ManMidas — the game was taken by Its Okay in 55:52.
Model check result
Model favorite5ManMidas · 55%
Series result5ManMidas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2