Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Lucky Bird
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Hoodwink
FrancisLee · 1 game
Iooften banned
FrancisLee · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 436 bans
Mars
475 picks · 696 bans
Bane
438 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 601 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 603 bans
Sand King
349 picks · 512 bans
Keeper of the Light
341 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 82%
Hero pool strength56% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
5ManMidas 36%Lucky Bird 64%
The model gave 64% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 30:57.
Game 2prediction correct40:18
5ManMidas 36%Lucky Bird 64%
The model gave 64% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 21:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 64%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2