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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5ManMidas

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
lukiluki · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 4 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
67%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yarintheslayer · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
422 picks · 947 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
384 picks · 544 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 715 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 558 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
314 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 218 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 284 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
273 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:19
5ManMidas 32%Team DogChamp 68%
The model gave 68% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 40:49.
Game 2prediction correct15:24
5ManMidas 32%Team DogChamp 68%
The model gave 68% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 68%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2