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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5ManMidas

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 14 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 8 games
13%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yarintheslayer · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 448 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 681 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 544 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
405 picks · 285 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 596 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 562 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 628 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
334 picks · 780 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:27
5ManMidas 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:06.
Game 2prediction correct16:39
5ManMidas 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 28:06.
Game 3prediction correct42:32
5ManMidas 43%Team DogChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 36:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 57%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3