Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction55meowwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5meow
Alchemistoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Save · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Chives · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Save · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Chives · 1 game
For Fun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
730 picks · 613 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 486 bans
Beastmaster
431 picks · 1048 bans
Doom
416 picks · 682 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 994 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 373 bans
Undying
387 picks · 607 bans
Mirana
380 picks · 206 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% For Fun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 5meow
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:28
5meow 53%For Fun 47%
The model gave 53% on 5meow — the game was taken by 5meow in 38:16.
Game 2prediction correct
5meow 53%For Fun 47%
The model gave 53% on 5meow — the game was taken by 5meow.
Model check result
Model favorite5meow · 53%
Series result5meow 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2