ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
EEminenceloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
dnm · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
Eminence
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
584 picks · 447 bans
Puck
413 picks · 890 bans
Mars
379 picks · 590 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 475 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
307 picks · 364 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
5RATFORCESTAFF 64%Eminence 36%
The model gave 64% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 64%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1