?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Runesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 22 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
14%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 6 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
40%

No Runes

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
378 picks · 582 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 248 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
330 picks · 564 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 763 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 329 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
236 picks · 443 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
217 picks · 330 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 98 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
5RATFORCESTAFF 60%No Runes 40%
The model gave 60% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdnm
50% · 24 games49% · 52 games
Shadow FiendMr.Jeans
Shadow Fiend
Broodmother
BroodmotherSpeeed
47% · 35 games50% · 55 games
BloodseekerBerna
Bloodseeker
Enchantress
EnchantressMoOz
49% · 102 games57% · 95 games
PangolierHyko
Pangolier
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenalbinozebra
48% · 60 games51% · 15 games
Vengeful SpiritJupiter
Vengeful Spirit
38% · 4 games
Elder TitanNuages
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed22:43
5RATFORCESTAFF 60%No Runes 40%
The model gave 60% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by No Runes in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdnm
48% · 42 games51% · 114 games
PuckMr.Jeans
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterSpeeed
53% · 115 games50% · 57 games
Chaos KnightBerna
Chaos Knight
Tusk
TuskMoOz
53% · 147 games49% · 37 games
BroodmotherHyko
Broodmother
Jakiro
Jakiroalbinozebra
44% · 120 games55% · 167 games
SnapfireJupiter
Snapfire
44% · 49 games
Crystal MaidenNuages
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct37:23
5RATFORCESTAFF 65%No Runes 35%
The model gave 65% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 54:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirendnm
71% · 32 games54% · 58 games
AlchemistBerna
Alchemist
Enigma
EnigmaSpeeed
50% · 81 game40% · 121 game
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
Ember Spirit
Marci
MarciMoOz
54% · 168 games41% · 42 games
BroodmotherHyko
Broodmother
Jakiro
Jakiroalbinozebra
46% · 57 games52% · 17 games
LionJupiter
Lion
50% · 100 games
Crystal MaidenNuages
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 72%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3