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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 32 games
56%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 7 games
86%

nouns

Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Husky · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Costabile · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
396 picks · 383 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 355 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
336 picks · 229 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
286 picks · 288 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
213 picks · 111 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
211 picks · 268 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 148 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 528 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:26
5RATFORCESTAFF 44%nouns 56%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 1:01:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladednm
48% · 168 games62% · 56 games
Nature's ProphetYamSun
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawSpeeed
43% · 147 games51% · 68 games
ViperMoo
Viper
Jakiro
Jakiroalbinozebra
50% · 89 games50% · 134 games
TuskGunnar
Tusk
Riki
RikiCTOMAHEH1
49% · 49 games51% · 113 games
MarciLelis
Marci
51% · 82 games
Crystal MaidenHusky
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct9:28
5RATFORCESTAFF 46%nouns 54%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdnm
42% · 96 games52% · 104 games
LeshracGunnar
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawSpeeed
44% · 114 games59% · 50 games
SlarkYamSun
Slark
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
52% · 247 games53% · 64 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
Silencer
Silenceralbinozebra
49% · 100 games44% · 204 games
SnapfireLelis
Snapfire
59% · 135 games
Treant ProtectorHusky
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct11:25
5RATFORCESTAFF 46%nouns 54%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linadnm
47% · 196 games59% · 125 games
Templar AssassinYamSun
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomSpeeed
42% · 125 games48% · 52 games
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Centaur Warrunner
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
52% · 87 games46% · 100 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
Clockwerkalbinozebra
56% · 185 games48% · 196 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
52% · 120 games
Treant ProtectorHusky
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 60%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3